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The Wisdom of Crowds: Can the Prediction Sites (Kalshi, etc.) Accurately Identify Winner (and Losers)?

As we creep towards November 3rd my e-box filled with Nate Silver polling data culminating in endless polling results. Polling is a picture in time of a stratified, random sample of likely voters. Once upon a time you purchased lists of likely voters, disaggregated the pool to match the general population, randomly selected names fromContinue reading “The Wisdom of Crowds: Can the Prediction Sites (Kalshi, etc.) Accurately Identify Winner (and Losers)?”