As we creep towards November 3rd my e-box filled with Nate Silver polling data culminating in endless polling results.
Polling is a picture in time of a stratified, random sample of likely voters. Once upon a time you purchased lists of likely voters, disaggregated the pool to match the general population, randomly selected names from the pool and dialed your sample on your landline.
Nowadays, cell phones, call blocking apps, how do you poll the likely voters?
The pollsters use different techniques, one is “weighting” and another is purchasing Facebook data, your postings identify you by gender, race, education, political preferences,and Meta sells the data. Each polling organization uses its own algorithms.
How accurate are the polls?
Every poll has a margin of error, expressed as percentage + or -, a candidate who polls 49-47 and a +/- 3% margin of error is a statistical tie.
Another, highly controversial, is the Wisdom of Crowds, which checks opinions of a large, engaged, diverse crowd.
Do groups sometimes know better than experts? In The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki explores how the collective intelligence of diverse groups can lead to remarkably accurate judgments.
The large, engaged self selected crowd can be participants in prediction sites, Kalshi , Polymarket and others.
Gambling on sports was prohibited with severe penalties. The 1919 Black Sox scandal, members of the Chicago White Sox accepted bribes from Arnold Rothstein, they were arrested, found not guilty; however, a newly appointed commissioner implemented a lifetime bar from playing Major League Baseball.
Pete Rose, was accused of betting on baseball as a manager, although he contested the accusation was found guilty and also lifetime prohibition, and has never been a candidate for the Hall of Fame. See Dowd Report.
Is betting on sports or betting online legal? See here.
Prediction sites advertise on TV during games, the dollars are huge.
In addition to sports the current elections are on the prediction sites, participants betting on this or that candidate or political questions. See Kalshi on the Michigan Senate race here.
Democrats are overwhelmingly favored by Kalshi participants.
Is the “wisdom of crowds” more accurate than polling?
Are the prediction site participants younger than the average age of voters in general? and more likely to vote for progressive candidates?
Mandani won the 2025 democratic primary, the 2025 general election and his Democratic DSA candidates prevailed in 8 of 9 primary elections, the polling was consistently incorrect. Michael Lange, author of the Narrative Wars Substack substack.was correct in predicting the winners, not only correct but highly accurate in his vote total predictions.
Can the prediction site projections, they change in real time as the bets flow to the site, influence election outcomes?
The next scary question: will an AI model be able to sift through all the data and accurately predict election outcomes?
My polling place is in my building, voting: easy choices, all blue, all the Democrats and “No” on propositions 1, 2 and 3, they empower the mayor and run around community engagement.
