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Latest from the Blog
Avoiding Post Coidal Depression*: Winning is Only Step One
I am not a member of any organized political party. I’m a Democrat.” — Will Rogers It’s the happiest I’ve been since the Knicks glorious victory, and probably, more memorable (maybe not!). For me, the people spoke, not the talking heads, the faux experts, the Juan and Maria’s spoke, incredible numbers rejected the Musk zillions,…
The Euphoric High of Voting: A New Nation, A New Direction: Hope Springs Eternal
Back in the day you closed the curtain on the voting booth, pulled down the levers next to the names of the candidates of choice and pulled the large handle, “clang” as the voting machine registered your vote. The “clang” was satisfying, the noise of democracy at the grassroots level. This morning I signed my name on…
The Wisdom of Crowds: Can the Prediction Sites (Kalshi, etc.) Accurately Identify Winner (and Losers)?
As we creep towards November 3rd my e-box filled with Nate Silver polling data culminating in endless polling results. Polling is a picture in time of a stratified, random sample of likely voters. Once upon a time you purchased lists of likely voters, disaggregated the pool to match the general population, randomly selected names from…
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