Why Is Polling Wrong So Often?

A week or so after an election the NY Times carries an article trying to explain why the polls were wrong, let’s explore: what is a poll?

A poll is a “random, stratified sample” of prime voters at a particular time and place.

Who are prime voters and how do we know?

Ballots are secret, whether you voted and your party enrollment is public information and companies sell voting data, if you vote in most elections you’re a prime voter. 

A decade ago the city wanted to build a massive sanitation garage a block from my residence. What could we do? A suggestion: collect $$ and send out mailings, I suggested, and we followed through, purchase email addresses of prime voters in the surrounding election districts and pepper with email and links to electeds. Many meetings later,  the electeds all on our side, and the plan moved from a sanitation garage to a high tech research center and high school on the site. 

Keep in mind all your posts on Facebook are available, there are no secrets. Pollsters used to purchase lists of prime voters: disaggregated  by gender, age, ethnicity/race, education … and randomly contact voters in each subgroup, we’d poll a “stratified, random sample” and call on their phone.  Whoops! most of us have abandoned landlines and our cellphone probably is limited to whomever we choose. 

How do pollsters contact the “stratified, random sample?”

Every polling organization has their own methodology.

“Weighting” is a common process,

A growing share of election polls in the United States – almost 70% of national polls in 2024 – are now weighted on political party affiliation or reported vote choice in a previous election. This kind of political weighting is controversial. But evidence shows that it has made polls modestly more accurate.

The NY Times lists results from a number of different polling organizations, including an average of all the pollsters. The gambling sites display the daily odds, and, yes, in the world of artificial intelligence some sites have developed dense algorithms to predict outcomes. 

Pollsters should publish margins of error for each poll.  By randomly selecting prime voters from each category, the polling numbers will differ, a 3% margin of error means plus or minus 3%, if the polling says candidate A with 51% and candidate B 49% with a 3% margin of error the results are a statistical tie.

The poll should indicate the time spread over which the poll took place, voters change opinions. 

435 separate elections across the nation, every member of the House is on a ballot, House members serve 2-year terms and one third of the Senate on the ballot every two years, Senators serve six year terms.

Currently in the Senate: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats ( including two Independents who caucus with the democrats). 
Senate Rules: 60 votes to close debate (called cloture), Unlimited debate 

Currently in the House: 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats  ( 3 vacancies)
House Rules: Debate time is equally divided, total time allowed for a bill decided by Rules Committee, Flow of legislation to the floor determined by the Speaker 

With divided houses in Congress joint committees, appointed by leadership of each house attempt to agree upon legislation, challenging 

Does joint legislation, aka bipartisan legislation moves to the president is he required to sign? No

If the Democrats win both houses can they jointly pass legislation?  The president can veto, 2/3 votes of each House required to override vetoes. 

If the president takes no action the bill becomes law after ten days if the Congress is in session. 

Has this happened?

Yes, under Clinton and Obama.

A few weeks ago Jarod Kushner, the president’s son-in-law met with Hakim Jefferies, currently the minority leader of the House, probably to begin a discussion of how the president will interact with a democratic house leadership. The democrats are sharply divided, for some, impeachment, or others keep the nation on the tracks.

And, of course, the internal party battles over the party candidacy in 28. On the Republican side: Vance or Rubio, will Trump try to pick a candidate?  

On the democratic side, who isn’t running might be easier.

With replicative AI rapidly evolving maybe they have a candidate?

Time to rewatch “I Robot” or reread the Issac Asimov books.