Tik Tok: Five Weeks Until the November 4th Mayoral Election

The mayoral election has been unpredictable and weird.

The polling in the Rank Order primary had Cuomo winning in the final vote transfer, Mamdani won in the first transfer by 12%. 

Why was the polling so wrong?

 A poll depends upon identifying a stratified random sample of “likely voters,” and asking the sample their candidate preferences. My cell rings, I glance at the screen, if I don’t identify the caller, I end the call. Pollsters use Facebook info, other social media, complex algorithms and polls commonly have large margins of error, perhaps let’s say  + or – 4%, if the candidates are within eight points of each other its a statistical tie.

In the June primary the pollsters did not account for the very large turnout of younger voters, not in the likely voter pool.

In the latest polls Mamdani is far ahead of Cuomo, 46%to 23%, see polls here.

A NYTimes op ed titled Democrats Are in Crisis: Eat-the-Rich Populism is the Only Answer sees Mamdani campaign as the answer for the Democratic Party nationally.

Sunday morning Adams announced he was withdrawing from the campaign, his name will remain on the ballot, September 11th was the last day to formally withdraw.

Will Adams voters, he was polling at 8%. switch to Cuomo or Mandani or stay home?

Candidates map out every day, neighborhood by neighborhood, social media posts, press releases, practicing debates, campaigns are highly structured and the Mamdani campaign has been a model for campaigns across the nation. Slogans that resonate, “Freeze the Rent,” simple, and hits the # 1 voter issue: affordability.

And, of course the unanswerable questions,

Will the Adams voters switch to Cuomo, Mamdani or stay home?

Will Bloomberg and real estate overlords pour Independent Expenditure dollars into the Cuomo campaign?

Will Curtis Sliwa drop out, seems unlikely as he has been a critic of Trump, and if so, where would his voters go?

The wild card, what will Trump do? Would a Trump involvement help or hurt Cuomo? Many Republicans outside of NYC want Mamdani to win, so they can campaign against the “communist” mayor.

Elections are never over until the last ballot is counted. Hillary was leading Trump until FBI Director Comey announced an investigation of possible malfeasance.

Michael Lange writes a substack called Narrative Wars, an extremely detailed examination of the Mamdani campaign, worth a read, and Lange predicts an overwhelming win for Mamdani, he was correct in the primary, the only one!! 

September 11th, 2001 was the Democratic Primary, and 9/11 forever changed NYC politics, the long shot Republican candidate served three terms, twelve years as mayor.  Will ICE snatch up Mandami and fly him off to Zambia? 

Now if the Jets and Giants starting winning, the Yankees roll and the Knicks get off to a good start ….. hope reigns eternal.