Post Labor Day: The Race for NYC Mayor Begins

Vacations over, no more lounging on a beach, back to work, schools open and mayoral candidates begin the sprint to November 4th. A two person race: Mayor Adams polling in single digits, a 68 year old three time elected governor versus a 33 year old Assembly member virtually unknown prior to the June primary.

A generational race with Mamdani polling well ahead of the field.

The NY Post reports,
The survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted by Tulchin Research shows Democratic nominee and state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani leading the five-person field with 42%. Cuomo trails in second at 26%, followed by Republican Curtis Sliwa at 17%, Mayor Eric Adams at 9%, and independent candidate Tricia Walden at 3%.

The highly regarded Siena Poll,  44% Mamdani25% Cuomo12% Sliwa7% Adams

Over the last few days, an unannounced Adams trip to Florida and a meeting with high level Trump staff and perhaps an offer of the Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. 

What does “dropping out” mean?   Would Adams name be removed from the ballot?  or would the counting of ballots simply ignore Trump votes?

The online site The City explains, 

A key upcoming date to keep in mind: the ballot certification deadline, which falls on Thursday, Sept. 11, this year.

That’s the date on which the city Board of Elections will certify the lineup of candidates whose names and parties will appear on voters’ ballots in November.

If Adams drops out before then and the board accepts his elimination, things are fairly simple: His name will be removed from the ballot by election officials.

If a candidate has a specific, legal basis for being disqualified from the ballot — including death, not being a resident of the city on Election Day or being nominated for a judgeship — and the ballots with their name have already been printed, “the Board’s practice has been that the candidate would remain on the ballot, but the votes are not counted,”

If Adams does drop out, would his potential voters switch to Cuomo, or Mamdani, or stay home?

Sliwa, polling at 12% on the Siena poll, adamantly states under no circumstances would drop out of the race.

In the meantime the Mamdani campaign contributions are approaching the statutory limit while Cuomo is fading.

President Trump, clearly not so behind the scenes, said he prefers a two-person race; he praised Cuomo and called Mamdani a communist.

The mayoral election debates:  October 16th and October 22nd.

The other election, the election of the City Council Speaker, takes place the first week in January the 51 newly elected members of the Council select the Speaker, the second most powerful elected in the city, needless to say the June Democratic primary winners are actively “wheeling and dealing” behind the scenes. 

Schools open, kids reporting to school on September 4th, no cell phones, and a host of issues facing the Department of Education leadership who may, or may not be replaced by the new mayor.

Have the ICE raids scared families and are they keeping their kids at home?

Will the Department be moving to close/combine the very small schools?

Is the Class Size Reduction Law being fully implemented?

and, a 3.5% raise on September 15th 

Elections are never over until the last ballot is counted.

In 2016, 11 days before the presidential election FBI Director Comey sent a letter to Congress stating “… the bureau was reviewing newly discovered emails ‘pertinent’ to an investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private server.”  Many believe the Comey letter was responsible for Clinton’s defeat at the polls.

Shortly after the winner is declared the a Transition Team will be announced, the Team will meet with current city officials as well as recommend structural and/or staffing changes across the city bureaucracy. The current mayoral control law sunsets 6/30/26, the legislature must extend, amend or allow the law to default to the previous structure.  Mamdani has said he opposes mayoral control and supports increasing parent and teacher voice, without any details. Cuomo supports mayoral control and has an impressive 25  Point Education Plan that he released at the UFT Spring Conference,  

Gideon John Tucker (February 10, 1826 – July 1899) was an American lawyer, newspaper editor and politician. In 1866, as Surrogate of New York County, he wrote in a decision on a legal malpractice claim against a deceased lawyer’s estate: “No man’s life, liberty or property are safe while the NYS Legislature is in session.”