On November 4th registered voters in New York City will go to the polls to elect a mayor, a public advocate, a comptroller and fifty-one members of the city council.
Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 6:1 and 20% of registered voters are not registered in a party.
Although NYC has been overwhelmingly Democratic for 20 years, Republicans were elected (Guiliani and Bloomberg) as mayor.
The candidates are,
Democrat: Mamdani
Republican: Sliwa
Independent: Cuomo, Adams, Walton
The most recent polling,
Mamdani. 35%
Cuomo. 25%
Sliwa, 14%
Adams, 11%
Walton, 1%
Unsure. 13%
It appears unlikely that any of the candidates will dropout and endorse another candidate, remember, this is a plurality election, the most votes wins.
Cuomo has not decided whether he will contest the election, his campaign reports he will decide by September.
With the overwhelming Democratic registration, the press sees Mamdani as the favorite.
Michael Lange, a substacker, has written in detail explaining why Mandani will win, win easily. Among all the “experts” Lange is the only reporter who predicted a Mamdani primary victory, an overwhelming victory.
Michael predicts, perhaps excruciating detail, a Mamdani victory in November, he describes a number of scenarios, all leading to a victory, for politics nerds, a great read here.
At the UFT Spring Conference, attended by over a thousand members the candidates had an opportunity to make their appeal and their statements are online. Watch here. UFT mayoral candidates’ forum on May 17
The UFT sent out a survey asking members to prioritize major issues and candidate preferences, only 2200 members replied, and there was no clear choice and Mulgrew decided not to put forward a primary endorsement recommendation.
“There is no clear consensus among the membership,” he said. “It’s one of the most polarizing races we have ever seen inside the union.”
At the July 8th Delegate Assembly meeting, delegates in-person and online, over 2000 participated, after a lengthy discussion 64% of the delegates approved the Mamdani endorsement motion.
An opposition caucus demanded the union conduct a membership referendum, each school has a chapter leader and at least one delegate, every member has a representative at the Delegate Assembly, and, referendums are not a “stratified random sample,” they only represent the activists, in the history of the union the only referendum was whether to take a position on the war in Vietnam, and, if so, what position? The voters, I have no idea re how many members voted, was not to take a position, if the vote was yes it was to take a position against the war. The issue was enormously polarizing and the referendum did not change minds.
The union could employ a polling company to conduct statistically valid polls, expensive; however, the delegates are the representatives of the membership.
Mulgrew made it clear he was not telling anyone how to vote; it is essential that the union is “at the table.”
As a union that’s as large and diverse as ours, making an endorsement is a complicated task. But we can’t isolate ourselves from politics; we know that it’s better to be at the table when moving our agenda forward. We need a mayor who will be an ally, not an adversary.
To be clear: We are not telling you who to vote for. Each of you will cast your vote in November based on your own values, priorities and beliefs. Our duty to our membership is to advise them through our endorsements on which candidate we believe will act in the best interest of UFT members, their profession and their livelihoods. Moving forward with the decision that our delegates reached today best positions us to advance our agenda and face the challenges ahead for New York City and its public schools.
I suspect members are opposing the endorsement because of Mamdani’s comments on Israel and Hamas. This is a highly emotional issue, some of my friend’s family are holocaust survivors, for others, victims of holocaust. One is a State employee, she despises Cuomo, thinks Adams should be in jail, and is put off by Mamdani’s “intifada” statement, she’s waiting…
Watch Mamdani response to his “globalize the Intifada” comment, Zohran Mamdani repeatedly pressed on whether he condemns ‘globalize the intifada’ term in NBC interview
When decisions are made over the budget, choosing a chancellor, mayoral control, the union must be at the table and maintaining a close relationship with the mayor is crucial, listen to a Mamdani statement at the Spring Conference Zohran Mamdani at UFT mayoral forum, and, after his endorsement. NYC Mayor Race: Zohan Mamdani endorsed by teachers’ union; President Trump threatens takeover of New York City – ABC7 New York
At a news conference at union headquarters the following day, Mamdani pledged to work with the union to protect New York City public schools and support educators and students.
“Teachers, parents and students must be partners in the way that we lead our education policy across the city because ultimately it is those New Yorkers who oftentimes know the exact answers as to what is plaguing our schools, what policies could fix those schools,”
UFT President Michael Mulgrew as he praised Mamdani’s focus on making the city more affordable for working people.
“We are looking forward to having a real partnership in City Hall with someone who truly will say, ‘What do we need to do to support our school system? What do we need to do to support the people who are trying to make each and every one of their students’ lives better?'”
… the longer you wait the fewer chairs at the table.
How about Pete Seegar, If I Had a Hammer …
Ed in the Apple: Blogging on the Intersection of Education and Politics Title 